Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.057768 0.066084 0.075442 0.086807 0.100304 0.115905 0.135424
2025-11-23 0.045450 0.055652 0.068129 0.084690 0.106361 0.134132 0.173027
2025-11-30 0.037595 0.048817 0.063579 0.084809 0.115213 0.158228 0.225652
2025-12-07 0.031515 0.043114 0.059407 0.084643 0.124019 0.185418 0.293370
2025-12-14 0.026067 0.037308 0.054033 0.081717 0.128464 0.208402 0.365800
2025-12-21 0.020878 0.030997 0.046780 0.074400 0.124308 0.216882 0.419023
2025-12-28 0.018134 0.027979 0.044119 0.074115 0.132521 0.251332 0.544368
2026-01-04 0.016182 0.025909 0.042649 0.075675 0.145056 0.300516 0.738505
2026-01-11 0.014368 0.023775 0.040688 0.075929 0.155435 0.351024 0.981261
2026-01-18 0.012825 0.021873 0.038811 0.075968 0.165747 0.408022 1.305170
2026-01-25 0.011299 0.019768 0.036177 0.073814 0.170426 0.453979 1.651953
2026-02-01 0.009870 0.017642 0.033144 0.070083 0.170038 0.486266 1.996768
2026-02-08 0.008985 0.016477 0.031953 0.070588 0.182236 0.571036 2.760022
2026-02-15 0.008183 0.015363 0.030685 0.070645 0.193625 0.664442 3.810122
2026-02-22 0.007585 0.014585 0.030028 0.072186 0.210907 0.800123 5.603924
2026-03-01 0.007028 0.013816 0.029258 0.073260 0.227653 0.954539 8.268230
2026-03-08 0.006397 0.012799 0.027728 0.071774 0.234758 1.072466 11.274315
2026-03-15 0.005641 0.011408 0.025064 0.066236 0.223777 1.080637 12.956629
2026-03-22 0.005257 0.010823 0.024339 0.066591 0.237716 1.264579 19.314408
2026-03-29 0.004979 0.010448 0.024095 0.068474 0.259931 1.546071 31.933733
2026-04-05 0.004678 0.009979 0.023523 0.069127 0.277327 1.830274 51.340670
2026-04-12 0.004397 0.009523 0.022915 0.069515 0.294179 2.153669 84.305389
2026-04-19 0.004074 0.008929 0.021826 0.067862 0.299516 2.385154 125.283428